Niyogin Fintech — Full Valuation & Scenario Analysis (FY25–FY30)

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Niyogin Fintech — Simple Guide for Beginners (FY25–FY30)

1. Quick Overview

Niyogin Fintech is a company with two main parts:

  1. Niyogin Finserv (NBFC) – gives loans to small businesses (MSMEs).

  2. iServeU – provides technology for payments and banking in smaller towns.

The company plans to split (demerge) into two separate listed businesses so investors can see each clearly.

2. How the Businesses Make Money

NBFC: Earns interest from lending to small businesses. It uses tech to check who can repay.

  • Loans given (AUM) are expected to grow from ₹278 Cr in FY25 to ₹800 Cr by FY27.

iServeU: Earns fees from digital banking services, devices (like POS machines), and software.

  • Revenue is expected to grow from ₹35 Cr in FY25 to ₹150 Cr by FY27.

3. How We Estimate the Value (Easy Terms)

There are two ways we looked at the value:

a) DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

Think of this as adding up all the company’s future profits but adjusting them because money today is worth more than money later.

  • NBFC value: ~₹43 per share.

  • iServeU value: ~₹47 per share.

  • Together: ~₹90 per share (could be ₹55 if things go badly, or ₹120 if things go very well).

b) Peer Comparison

We compare Niyogin’s numbers with similar companies:

  • NBFC peers: MAS Financial, UGRO Capital → fair value: ~₹56/share.

  • iServeU peers: Paytm, CMS Info → fair value: ~₹64/share.

4. What Could Go Wrong (Risks)

  • More loan defaults than expected.

  • Slower rollout of devices and services.

  • Economic slowdown.

5. What Could Go Right (Upside)

  • Smooth demerger increases investor interest.

  • Fast growth in loans and rural digital banking.

  • Strong profits by FY27.

Base case: If things go as planned, your investment could double in 2–3 years.

Disclaimer: This is not advice. Always check facts and talk to a financial advisor before investing.

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