Niyogin Fintech Investment Analysis: Detailed Forecast and Valuation Model

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1. Introduction

Niyogin Fintech Ltd. is a diversified fintech platform focusing on MSME lending, rural financial services, and wealth-tech solutions. With an impending demerger into two listed entities—Niyogin Finserv (NBFC) and iServeU (SaaS & payments infrastructure)—the company aims to unlock value and improve operational focus.

Sources:

2. Business Overview

NBFC Arm – Niyogin Finserv

  • MSME lending via co-lending and embedded finance.

  • FY27 AUM target: ₹750–800 crore.

  • Expected RoE: 14.5%+ by FY27.

  • Strong risk management through AI-driven credit scoring.

iServeU – SaaS & Payments Infrastructure

  • Digital banking services to rural & semi-urban India.

  • FY27 net revenue target: ₹150 crore.

  • EBITDA margin target: 18–20%.

  • POS terminals, soundboxes, and API-based banking solutions.

3. Past Performance Snapshot (FY25)

Metric Value
Revenue ₹67.4 crore
NBFC AUM ₹278.8 crore (+56% YoY)
EPS ~ -₹1.4 to -₹1.6
Market Cap ~₹589 crore
Share Price ~₹57
iServeU Profitability First PBT-positive quarter

4. Future Financial Projections (FY27 Targets)

NBFC Arm

  • AUM: ~₹800 crore.

  • RoE: ~15% → Net profit ~₹120 crore.

  • Shares outstanding: ~13 crore.

  • EPS Estimate: ₹9–10.

iServeU

  • Net revenue: ~₹150 crore.

  • EBITDA margin: 18–20% → EBITDA ₹27–30 crore.

  • EPS: ₹2–3.

Combined EPS (Post-Demerger View): ~₹11–13.

5. Valuation Scenarios

If investing ₹1,00,000 at ₹57/share (≈1,754 shares):

Scenario P/E Multiple Share Price (FY27) Portfolio Value
Bear Case 10x ~₹110–120 ₹1.9–2.1 lakh
Base Case 12x ~₹132–144 ₹2.3–2.5 lakh
Bull Case 15x ~₹165–195 ₹2.9–3.4 lakh

6. Key Growth Drivers

  • Post-demerger clarity and market re-rating.

  • Expanding MSME credit demand.

  • Rural digitization push.

  • Technology-led efficiency in operations.

7. Risks

  • Execution challenges post-demerger.

  • Competitive fintech environment.

  • MSME loan defaults in case of economic downturn.

  • Regulatory changes impacting NBFCs or fintech APIs.

8. Conclusion

Niyogin Fintech is a 3–5 year high-risk, high-reward investment. If growth targets are met, potential 2x–3x returns from current levels are possible. The demerger could significantly improve valuation transparency, making it easier for investors to value each business on its own merits.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Do your own research before making financial decisions.

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